Amara's law is a maxim stating:
- We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.
It was put forth by Roy Amara of the Institute for the Future . It is sometimes called Saffo's law or Clarke's law.
It echoes a quote by Joseph Licklider that says:
- A modern maxim says: People tend to overestimate what can be done in one year and to underestimate what can be done in five or ten years,
which occurs in a footnote on p. 17 of Joseph Licklider, "Libraries of the Future," MIT Press, 1965.
See also